Murmurings that the next iPhone won't appear until October are being echoed all around the web, but they don't fit the way that Apple operates - nor with the details emerging from carriers
Believe nothing that you read about the iPhone 5's launch unless you really, really trust the source. And even then, look askance at it.
In the past 24 hours, the intertubes have been abuzz even more than possible over the idea that "the" "iPhone 5" (note: might be more than one; might not be called iPhone 5) will be delayed until October. This has come from no less authoritative a source than John Paczkowski at AllThingsD, the spinoff stand-alone weblog from the Wall Street Journal, and so meant to be an authoritative source.
Well, maybe. It's absolutely possible that Paczkowski has nailed this, and that the iPhone(s) will not land until October. However, I'd point out that by my understanding, ATD doesn't have to pass the same tough tests that articles in the WSJ do, where even "anonymous" sources have to be named to senior editors and in effect vetted for independence. (The WSJ is very, very hot on not getting things wrong; the motto inside the building is that it's better to be late and correct than early and wrong.)
Do I know that the next iPhone release will be in September? No, not for sure. However, there are two telling details that I do know, one public, one less so:
• Apple's iOS5, which will obviously power the next iPhone version, is rolling towards a September release. Look, there's even the web beta for iCloud.
• the boxes in which the new iPhone hardware is encased have been transported to carriers for testing. This is an important step in the release cycle for any phone. As I pointed out the other week, the release of the Windows Phone "Mango" code to developers means that handset makers can start developing their versions, which then means that they can get the phones moving down the process towards release. But WP "Mango" phones aren't expected until October at the earliest.
The next iPhones go for their testing inside locked and sealed boxes so that the carriers can carry out checks on their network compatibility in their labs. It's very high security, as you could guess; my understanding is that barely anyone inside the carriers gets to open those boxes, and even when they do the hardware is encased in a dummy body which means there's no clue to what the actual phone will do. This, by the way, is what led to "Antennagate": there simply hadn't been enough people outside Apple who had tried the iPhone 4 at length in its real form to discover the problems with its reception.
You can bet that Apple has come up with some sneaky scheme that would instantly identify any leak of a phone photo from any of those testing labs; and you wouldn't want to be the carrier whose employee had done so. (The employee probably wouldn't stay employed very long either.)
Either way, the new iPhones are in the system, which means they now just have to get approval - which will probably only take a few weeks at most - and can then be signed off for manufacturing.
Now, why would Apple release the phones in October rather than September? Bear in mind that it wants to maximise its revenue, and that the expectation is that these phones are coming - there might even be a lull in sales as people expect something new. (And also as they go on holiday.) Come September, people will be raring to go.
There's a lesson from history here. In 2005, early in September Apple held a "special event" to launch the (dire) Motorola ROKR - the first phone that also ran iTunes! (It was horrendous.) To make up for the ROKR, or basically to ignore it altogether, since Steve Jobs had already decided that it was rubbish and had got the project to build the iPhone going, Apple introduced the iPod nano.
The nano was a knockout seller. But a week or two later, Jobs gave the keynote at Apple's Paris Expo. Why, he was asked then, hadn't he waited until he had the big occasion at which to show off his new product? Why do it in a little venue in front of a small invited audience (albeit with an intrigued press watching on satellite links)?
Because, Jobs explained, even a week could make a huge difference when you're looking at the runup to Christmas. "Every single week before the holidays counts, and we didn't want to wait two weeks when every week counts with very high volumes," he said then.
It's almost surely the same with the iPhone: Apple will be expecting this to be a big seller around Christmas (whether it's one or two versions; if there's a smaller "nano"-priced iPhone then that will mean even more pressure to have it on sale for longer).
Now, why would Apple be looking to release in October? By the logic of "get it out there sooner so more people can buy it", there's no sense in waiting so long. The only reason why Apple would delay the launch in that way would be if it has hit a manufacturing problem. But supply lines are quiet; there's plenty of capacity (Apple secured it after the Japanese earthquake in March). So it can't be a supply constraint either.
I think we can also discount the marvellously bonkers "on the one hand, but then again no" posting at Boy Genius Report which says "According to confirmed information we have received from a reliable source at Canadian carrier Telus, Apple's iPhone 5 looks to be touching down on October 1st in Canada. In the past, Apple has flip flopped between releasing its iconic smartphone in the US first and then in Canada, or launching its smartphone simultaneously in the US and Canada as it did with the iPhone 3GS."
First of all, that's not flip-flopping; it's varying. Second, it doesn't answer the question of why it matters, since it doesn't answer the general question of whether the launch will hapen in September or October.
My gut feeling, allied to the information from carriers and Apple's history, is that we're still looking at a September release. Who knows, perhaps someone was even misdirecting the good people at ATD by suggesting October, just to forestall any drop in sales over August. I'm not saying John Packzowski is wrong, or misreporting; only that his sources might be. Not long to wait now, though, to find out who's right.
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Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/blog/2011/aug/02/iphone-october-september-more-likely
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